Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a court officially sentences Shayne Coplan to serve time in a correctional facility (jail, prison, or equivalent detention facility) before January 1, 2026, at 00:00 UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market:

"Incarceration" means being ordered to serve time in a jail, prison, or similar correctional facility where the individual is physically confined. This does NOT include house arrest, home confinement, electronic monitoring without physical confinement, community service, probation, or suspended sentences.

"Official Sentencing" means a final court judgment in a criminal case that includes incarceration as part of the sentence. This includes plea agreements accepted by the court that result in incarceration.

Timing and Suspended Sentences: The sentencing must occur before the deadline, even if actual incarceration begins afterward. Suspended sentences count as "No" unless the suspension is revoked and incarceration is ordered before the deadline.

Appeals: The market resolves based on the initial sentencing, regardless of pending appeals.

The relevant jurisdiction: Refers to any court within the United States (federal, state, or territorial). Foreign or international court rulings are excluded unless they are enforced through U.S. legal channels.

Source Requirements:

Confirmation of the sentencing must come from the following sources, in order of precedence:

Official court records or documents from the relevant jurisdiction.

Credible media reports from The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com), The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com), Reuters (https://www.reuters.com), BBC News (https://www.bbc.com), Associated Press (https://apnews.com), Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com), or Bloomberg News (https://www.bloomberg.com), which may be used if official court records are unavailable.

Official announcements from law enforcement agencies or government statements.

If sources conflict (e.g., one news outlet reports a sentence without incarceration while another reports incarceration), the primary source (official court records) determines the resolution.

If no sentencing is confirmed by January 1, 2026, at 00:00 UTC, or if data is unavailable (e.g., due to sealed records, inaccessible court documents, or lack of reliable reporting), the market will resolve to "No."